At the launch of their annual rural economy report
in Beijing yesterday, a think-tank forecast that grain output would
grow this year but that farmers’ income growth would slow due to
rising crop prices.
"Slowdown of income growth rate is very likely
because there is little room for crop prices, which are already
relatively high, to increase further," the researchers concluded in
their Green Book of China's Rural Economy, published
yesterday.
Because of favorable weather last winter and this
spring, farmers are expected a yield of 480 million tons of grain
this year, up from 469 million tons in 2004.
Their growth in income, however, could slow to 5
percent from last year's 6.8 percent, which had been the fastest
annual increase since 1997.
The team from the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences (CASS)
and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)?summarized
last year's achievements and problems regarding rural community
development and submitted policy suggestions for the coming
year.
All the senior experts involved in policy-making
expressed concern for farmers' income. They pointed out a steady
rise in expenditure on goods such as fertilizer and seeds but a
sluggish increase, or even decline, in crop prices.
"Their expenditure is increasing but crop prices
are unlikely to go up any further this year," said Ma Xiaohe,
president of the Industrial Economy Research Institute of the
National Development and Reform Commission.
Ma said this year farmers are likely to see their
income gap with city dwellers widen, despite a slight narrowing
during 2003-04.
Last year, average farmers' per capita income
reached 2,936 yuan (US$354), whilst that of urban residents was
3.21 times more at 9,422 yuan (US$1,135).
The team also attributed the continued increase in
harvests to central government's determination to tap productivity
in rural regions and the enthusiasm shown by farmers in planting
crops.??
(China Daily April 14, 2005)