One of the targets put forward in the 11th Five-Year Plan
(2006-2010) proposal submitted to the Fifth Plenary Session of the
16th CPC (Communist Party of China) Central Committee was "doubling
per capita GDP".
It is expected that by 2010, China's per capita gross domestic
product (GDP) would have increased from US$850 in 2000 to
US$1600-1700. Based on this target, experts forecast that the
number of affluent families would have increased by 30 million.
Wang Jian, deputy secretary-general of the China Society of
Macroeconomics, told China Financial and Economic News that
"common prosperity" is emphasized in the proposal, but prosperity
levels in different parts of China cannot be evaluated using a
single criterion. The development differences between urban and
rural areas, inland and coastal areas should also be
considered.
For example, Shenzhen, one of China's richer cities, reported
US$7000 per capita GDP in 2004. The municipal government announced
that by 2010, their per capita GDP should reach US$12 thousand,
equaling that of a medium-developed country.
In China's mid-west, on the other hand, per capita GDP should
reach US$1600-1700 in 2010, equaling that of the eastern coastal
cities in the late 1900s.
Moreover, living standards in the eastern coastal cities in 2010
will be similar those in Shenzhen today.
According to Wang, living standards in currently less developed
areas and developed areas will still be quite different by 2010.
But there will be less polarization between rich and poor; the base
standard of living will be greatly improved.
At present, there are about 40 million affluent families with
annual incomes of about 100 thousand yuan, accounting for 10
percent of the 400 million families in China. Under the assumed 8
percent GDP growth rate, there should be 70 million affluent
families by 2010.?
In terms of private cars, there are five million private cars in
China today, or four cars to every 1000 people. If annual
purchasing power continues to rise at 20 percent, by 2010, there
will be 15 million private cars in the country, or 10 cars to every
1000 people. "Of course," Wang added, "this is just a rough
forecast according to the current situation."
An increase in social wealth is the prerequisite of constructing
an affluent society. If per capital GDP is doubled, more funds will
be available to develop public welfare services including rural
medical treatment, employment and compulsory education.?
Another China Financial and Economic News report
published on October 22 stated that general index statistics were
used in previous Five-Year Plans and forecasts, but the individual
index was neglected. This was according to Cong Ming, deputy
director of the Macro Department of State Council Research Office,
With the introduction of per capita GDP, individuals who will be
born over the next five years will also be considered, which is
more reasonable and people-oriented.
Cong added that based on current population growth rates, China
should become a medium-income country by 2020, with US$3000 per
capita GDP. Taking into account any RMB revaluation, this estimate
could be considered to be conservative.
(China.org.cn By Xu Lin October 31, 2005)