WTO: World trade back to pre-crisis level, uncertainty looms
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World trade rose 14.5 percent in 2010, reclaiming the ground it lost during the financial crisis, but clouds remained over future growth, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said Wednesday.
"World trade bounced back strongly in 2010," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy told the press when releasing its annual world trade report.
"Only one year after falling by 12 percent, export volumes rebounded by 14.5 percent, which is the largest annual expansion on record," he said.
However, due to the political turmoil in the Middle East and price hikes for oil and other primary commodities, the WTO was more cautious in its outlook for 2011, forecasting a modest 6.5-percent growth for the year.
The WTO noted in particular the natural and nuclear disasters in Japan. It forecasts Japan's export to drop by between 0.5 and 1.6 percent, and its imports to rise between 0.4 and 1.3 percent.
The medium- and long-term impact of Japan's disasters on world trade "should be small," WTO Chief Economist Patrick Low said. "But the pattern of trade is clearly going to be affected and certainly in the short run, on account of Japan's key role as a supplier of intermediary goods, particularly electronic components and auto parts."
The WTO said disaster-affected goods from Japan that had substitutes might be imported from other countries or purchased domestically, whereas goods without substitutes would experience temporary shortages.
Meanwhile, the possibility of the Doha Round trade talks stalling could also undermine the full potential of global trade.
"Our negotiations are going through a very difficult stage," Lamy said.
He compared the multilateral trade talks with a mule. "The difficulty with mules is that they sometimes get stuck. They don't go backwards but they refuse to move forwards either. And this is a bit of what's happening with the multilateral trading system today."
The Doha Round has encountered many problems in sector negotiations, as members fail to bridge the apparent gaps in such areas as agriculture and non-agricultural market access.
