Don't forget 'the forgotten phase' in Yushu
0 
This does not seem to be the moment to dwell on Yushu's future. With rescuers still searching for survivors, the wounded being carried to hospitals, and dazed families living in emergency tents, China's authorities have enough on their hands. Yet, as difficult as it is, planners in China are having to do just that as they seek to answer the question: "What must be done to get the earthquake zone back to normal?"
This question provides a strong link between Yushu and Wenchuan, which is approaching the second anniversary of its devastating earthquake. Work is still continuing in Wenchuan to rebuild people's lives and, if possible, improve their social and economic prospects.
The signs from Wenchuan are positive for Yushu. Yushu is still living through what experts call the search and rescue phase of its disaster. Saving lives is the highest priority. Soon, it will enter the reconstruction phase, in which priorities shift to rebuilding houses, schools, hospitals and infrastructure that have been destroyed or damaged. Already the first signs of reconstruction are evident with the re-opening of the school for orphans.
Reconstruction has been the priority in Wenchuan for nearly two years. At first China set a limit of three years for completing this phase of the post-disaster work. Then it set for itself an even more stringent two-year deadline.
Now Wenchuan is moving into the third phase, the phase in which the social and economic livelihoods of the people in the affected area are re-established. Studies of previous disasters in other parts of the world show that this is often the forgotten phase. It is forgotten because it is at this stage that the work of disaster reconstruction changes its nature, resembling the more general task of economic and social development. The immediate need for reconstruction has been met and in many ways "things are back to normal" - or nearly.
And yet this appearance of normality is deceptive. Studies of disasters and their aftermath in many countries show that damage is greater in poor areas. Reconstruction can also leave the victims facing high levels of indebtedness, making continued socio-economic development vital to protect people from future natural disasters. Better-off people can afford better houses, or can move out of the most dangerous places, or can buy insurance. Those with a better income can do a number of things to make themselves less vulnerable to disasters.
A study of the aftermath of Japan's Hanjin-Awaji earthquake in 1995 gives some idea of what can happen in the forgotten phase. The economic livelihoods of the people in the earthquake zone improved rapidly in the two years after the disaster as the reconstruction efforts created employment. But then reconstruction tailed off, and so did employment. The income of the survivors began to decline, falling beneath pre-disaster levels. Only after 11 years did the incomes of the survivors reach their pre-disaster levels - by which time the rest of Japan had grown by another 17.5 percent. This left the disaster area even poorer than when the earthquake occurred.
The experience of Hanjin-Awaji confirms that the period when reconstruction is completed is of vital importance. If policy-makers conclude that the disaster zone is now back to normal and reduce their efforts, they will - without intending to - greatly increase the vulnerability of the survivors. If, on the other hand, they realize a lot must still be achieved, they can press on from the strong base created by the reconstruction effort, creating socio-economic opportunities for people in the disaster area.
Later, when Yushu's rescue phase is in the past, the area will be able to draw solace from the knowledge that the forgotten phase is not being forgotten in Wenchuan. China's authorities clearly understand that recovery requires more than reconstruction. They are maintaining their efforts to stimulate and consolidate Wenchuan's economic position, understanding it is the best way to mitigate the risk of any future disaster in the area.
The rescue phase in Yushu should be helped by the lessons learned in Wenchuan. When Yushu reaches what has, in the past, been the forgotten phase of recovery, it will again be helped by the experience that China is gaining in Wenchuan.
It is small comfort at this moment, but it will be helpful two years from now.
Graham Meadows is a special advisor to the European Commission and Michael Dunford is a visiting professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. They are both doing research in China on earthquake reconstruction.
