Expert: Talks face complexities
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More difficulties may arise in the second week of the Cancun climate change negotiations, Martin Khor, executive director of South Center, warned on Saturday.
The difficulties are created when developed countries explicitly show unwillingness to commit themselves to set greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for the second period under the Kyoto Protocol by the time its first phase expires in 2012, said Khor.
"Some developed countries have quite aggressively announced that they will not continue their commitment in the Kyoto Protocol," said Khor of the Geneva-based non-governmental international organization representing 51 developing countries.
This has been especially true of Japan from the first day, he said.
"This has shocked developing countries because the rich countries are not going to keep up their commitments," he said.
"This has also created a big hindrance in the negotiations," he said, noting that it has dismantled the established international regime to tackle the climate change.
Japanese negotiators at different events have repeated the argument that the developed countries required to set emission cut targets under the Kyoto Protocol accounted only for 27 percent of the world's GHG emissions.
Other major emitters - especially the United States and China - are not legally bound under the Kyoto Protocol.
Khor said that, during the negotiations, wealthy countries demanded developing ones do much more, subjecting them to more reporting and more scrutiny. Meanwhile, they expressed the desire to see the world leave rich countries to do what they want.
This cannot be the solution to tackling climate change, he said. "It is not equitable, and more importantly, it will not lead to a climate solution."
He cited the latest study by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), which shows the voluntary commitment approach by the developed countries under the Copenhagen Accord - including the US - would only reduce GHG emissions by 16 percent.
Instead, to effectively slow down the temperature rise, at least a 40 percent emission cut from developed countries is required, he said.
He said that even this 16 percent comes with conditions.
The worst-case scenario, he added, would be that the UNEP study projects pledged by developed and developing countries together under Copenhagen Accord would still lead to a temperature increase of between 2.5 to 5 C by the end of this century.
"The developed countries want to be treated like developing countries and developing countries believe the leaders have failed," he said.
"This is recipe for disaster. If we don't have a regulation any more, we will be in the world of unthinkable disaster.
"We must avoid this at all cost in Cancun," he said.
Khor said three things are needed to resolve the impasse.
The first is that developed countries in the Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol - including Japan - commit to continuing the Kyoto Protocol.
The second, he added, is that the US makes similar commitments within the framework of the Convention through an instrument called the Long-term Cooperative Action.
The third part, based on the first two, mandates that developing countries - including China - agree to commit to do much more in mitigation, while being helped through finance and technology, he said.
"We do expect the developing countries (to) also contribute," he said, highlighting the fact that developing countries have set their self-supported targets to reduce GHG emissions.
"In China, your prime minister has made pledges on three targets that the world is eagerly looking to," he said.
Although China ranks only 75th in per capita GHG emissions, it remains the largest emitter owing to its huge population.
Despite this, the world expects China to do something. "We expect China to keep its ambition announced at Copenhagen and still do its best," he said.
"The whole jigsaw puzzle has to be there," Khor said.
Developing countries have done their best, he said, but their best is not enough - especially if their leaders are not going to keep the present system in place.
Despite the difficulties, Khor voiced a hope for "a balanced outcome".
That is, developed countries will take leadership in emission cuts by agreeing to commit themselves to the second period of Kyoto Protocol. The US will also do what is needed - and even go further, bound by a decision in the Long-term Cooperative Action under the UN framework convention on climate change.
At the same time, developing countries should maintain what they want to do. "Most important of all, the negotiators can make headway in Cancun in the areas of financing and technology transfer that is promised to developing countries
They should agree to the establishment of a new fund to support efforts of developing countries in pursuing sustainable development.
"Concrete measures should be taken for technology transfer to developing countries," he said.
Finally, "for those countries which suffer and will suffer from the adverse effect of climate change - like flooding in Pakistan and hurricanes - a new mechanism should be set up in order to assess the losses caused by climate change events and some system of compensation should also be set up," he said.
These are all the proposals that are made by developing countries in Cancun, he said.
"If we take all the measures to help them, we then will have a balanced outcome," he said.
The main issue currently, he added, is whether developed countries will accept their responsibility to cut emissions in the legally binding manner through the Kyoto Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol's first period expires in 2012 and the second period begins in 2013, he added, but many developing nations are unmotivated at best.
Particularly problematic, he noted, is the fact that they cannot persuade their political leaders to take all the environmental measures at economic costs for developed nations who are supposed to take the lead in their following their commitment.
"I think this is a crisis situation. Many countries are probably persuading Japan to withdraw its strong message that under no conditions will it enter into the Kyoto Protocol.
"If this problem is not resolved, we are going to see a lot of difficulties in the second week," said Khor.
