Don't forget 'the forgotten phase' in Yushu
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This does not seem to be the moment to dwell on Yushu's future. With rescuers still searching for survivors, the wounded being carried to hospitals, and dazed families living in emergency tents, China's authorities have enough on their hands. Yet, as difficult as it is, planners in China are having to do just that as they seek to answer the question: "What must be done to get the earthquake zone back to normal?"
This question provides a strong link between Yushu and Wenchuan, which is approaching the second anniversary of its devastating earthquake. Work is still continuing in Wenchuan to rebuild people's lives and, if possible, improve their social and economic prospects.
The signs from Wenchuan are positive for Yushu. Yushu is still living through what experts call the search and rescue phase of its disaster. Saving lives is the highest priority. Soon, it will enter the reconstruction phase, in which priorities shift to rebuilding houses, schools, hospitals and infrastructure that have been destroyed or damaged. Already the first signs of reconstruction are evident with the re-opening of the school for orphans.
Reconstruction has been the priority in Wenchuan for nearly two years. At first China set a limit of three years for completing this phase of the post-disaster work. Then it set for itself an even more stringent two-year deadline.
Now Wenchuan is moving into the third phase, the phase in which the social and economic livelihoods of the people in the affected area are re-established. Studies of previous disasters in other parts of the world show that this is often the forgotten phase. It is forgotten because it is at this stage that the work of disaster reconstruction changes its nature, resembling the more general task of economic and social development. The immediate need for reconstruction has been met and in many ways "things are back to normal" - or nearly.
And yet this appearance of normality is deceptive. Studies of disasters and their aftermath in many countries show that damage is greater in poor areas. Reconstruction can also leave the victims facing high levels of indebtedness, making continued socio-economic development vital to protect people from future natural disasters. Better-off people can afford better houses, or can move out of the most dangerous places, or can buy insurance. Those with a better income can do a number of things to make themselves less vulnerable to disasters.
