Will the world achieve food security?
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The world has to increase food production by 50 percent by 2030 and double it by 2050 to meet future demand. This seems to be the consensus among economists, scientists, politicians and representatives of the agricultural industry. But does the world really have to do so?
Even if the global population crosses 9 billion by 2050, which looks likely given the present trend, the world may not need to double its food production if food is not wasted and dietary habits change to healthier ways.
The need for a 100 percent rise in food production was based on a UN Food and Agriculture Organization report. But recent studies show the report implies that global food production during the 45 years from 2005 need to be raised by about 70 percent. The 30 percent gap is huge. In fact, it is equivalent to the food produced by the whole of the American continent.
So, what is the message? The world has to increase, by hook or crook, the output of agricultural and livestock (milk, meat and eggs) products by at least 70 percent. But isn't that a tough task, because urbanization across the world is eating into agricultural land, and once agricultural-surplus nations have been forced to become food-scarce countries today? For example, Mexico, the land where corn originated has to import corn.
Isn't it surprising that China, where rice was first cultivated and which is still its largest producer, has to import its staple? Isn't it surprising that not China, where tea originated and which is still its largest producer and consumer, but Kenya is its largest exporter? Isn't it surprising that India, which introduced sugar to the world, has to import sugar today? And isn't it surprising that India and Pakistan, where cotton was first cultivated, have to import cotton today?
The answer to all the questions is "no", for that is the natural outcome of market economy and globalization policies. Global food production and distribution no longer depends on the simple laws of demand and supply. Instead, they depend on the intricate and complicated policies of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the whims of multinational companies.
