Ivory Coast, proxy war?
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Outtara also is counting on his ambassadors in London, Washington and Paris to gather international support, while also hoping that those he plans to appoint in African states will secure more dependable support for the planned attack on Abijan.
The plan Western-backed plan will involve use of the thousands of UN troops already in Ivory Coast, which are being increased by 2,000.
Outtara feels certain that he'll be saved by external military intervention.
He told journalist Monica Mark of The Times (London) in Abijan last week, "ECOWAS has been given the assurance by the US, Europe and the UK that they will be given logistical support to carry out such an operation."
The plan, the reporter learned, was that "The hard work will essentially be done by African troops on the ground…" while the Western states give logistical support to the ECOWAS troops on the front line.
However, some African states, including Ghana and Nigeria, have not warmed to the idea of committing troops to force a military solution in Cote d'Ivoire – and they've said so.
Some West African nations have now met with US President Barack Obama to seek and possibly seal his assurance of backing for the planned attack.
But while Cote d'Ivoire's immediate neighbors may be talking war, some in the wider African Union (AU) are still seeking a peaceful solution.
Negotiating efforts by ECOWAS have proven futile, with Gbagbo's camp accusing Kenya's Prime Minister Raile Odinga of "bias" during the mediation discussions.
Now the AU is starting new mediation efforts.
Current AU chairman, Malawi President Bingu wa Mutharika, met the rivals in Abidjan and is now reporting back to the AU member-states.
The AU had previously backed the UN and ECOWAS recognition of Ouattara as the winner, but some key leaders are starting to have changes of mind: Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, for example, has now said that the UN "should not have recognized him (Outtara) so quickly".
Outtara remains imprisoned along with his government ministers, ambassadors and officials in a 300-room hotel described by the British reporter as a "part-time army barrack, part-holiday camp" that was really "a gilded refugee camp".
They remain cloistered in the dark and shadowy confines of the upscale Golf Hotel, unable to leave the gated and heavily guarded compound -- except by UN helicopter.
Gbagbo, meanwhile, still controls the army that continues to barricade the hotel compound -- and which also thwarted an attempt by Ouattara's supporters to take over the state TV station.
Outtara says he is prepared to remain at Golf Hotel for the long run. He told the British reporter he doesn't mind having to remain under hotel arrest "for ten years" – citing the experience of Burma's Aung Sang Suu Kyi.
But he may not have to stay or wait that long – if the AU works out a continental concordat that excludes a proxy war to solve a serious national problem that requires more patient negotiation than hurried military action.
The planned military intervention could reignite another costly and bloody civil war. Now, more than ever, the king-makers and power-brokers involved must choose to give peace a chance.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/node_7107878.htm
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