Chinese economy will not suffer a hard landing
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E-mail People's Daily, March 21, 2012
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![Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (R front) receives a gift book from a delegate while meeting with the overseas delegates who attend the China Development Forum 2012, in Beijing, capital of China, March 19, 2012. [Xinhua]](http://images.china.cn/attachement/jpg/site1007/20120321/001ec949c22b10d3843d04.jpg "Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (R front) receives a gift book from a delegate while meeting with the overseas delegates who attend the China Development Forum 2012, in Beijing, capital of China, March 19, 2012. [Xinhua]") |
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Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (R front) receives a gift book from a delegate while meeting with the overseas delegates who attend the China Development Forum 2012, in Beijing, capital of China, March 19, 2012. [Photo:Xinhua] |
At the China Development Forum 2012 sponsored by the Development Research Center of the State Council, noted economists and government officials from home and abroad shared their views about the Chinese economy in order to find the sustainable development direction for China.
The attendees said that the global economic situation will be even worse without China's contribution to the world economic growth and stability.
The role of China will be more important
Now that the current global economic outlook is still weak, China’s effort to the world economy has become more significant, said Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde, president of the International Monetary Fund. China should continue to play an important role in global policy discussions and continue to accelerate the economic transformation.
Lagarde said that China should continue to support economic growth and transform the economic growth pattern from relying on investment and exports to relying on domestic demand, improving the living standards of people and making them share the benefits brought by the sustained and rapid growth. Excitingly, these suggestions are supported by the Chinese government and reflected in its 12th Five-Year Plan.
China's capital market will be more international
Richard Hurd, with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said that 2012 is a very important year and the share of the BRICS countries will increase in the global production. In next 10 years, the BRICS countries especially China's growth speed will gradually slow down but the growth trend will continue. In the process of growth, the economic structure will systematically change, which will have an important impact to the whole economy.
China will carry out a new series of reforms in its capital markets. It is estimated that the country will hold 42 percent of global savings by 2020. Efficient use of these massive savings will benefit both the Chinese and global economies. Along with the increasing use of the yuan in cross-border trade settlement, China’s capital markets will become more international. As more and more foreigners begin to hold yuan-denominated assets, the yuan, a reserve currency, will play a more important role on the world stage.
China will push ahead the interest rate reform and rely more on domestic demand to stimulate economic growth, as part of its effort to restructure the economy and ensure prosperous future.
China should move toward a more balanced economy
Yale University Professor Stephen Roach said that both China and the world need to move toward a more balanced economy, as most economic crises over the past 30 years were caused by economic imbalances.
China’s economic growth used to rely on external demand, especially the demand from developed countries. It is an unsustainable model, and could not help China maintain rapid growth forever. The country must rely more on domestic demand to boost economic growth. It has made some progress in transforming its economic growth model since it rolled out the 12th Five-Year Plan, and its economy will not experience a hard landing.
Certain U.S. politicians have been engaged in a new round of China-bashing, and tend to be particularly tough when it comes to the unemployment situation in the United States. The U.S. economy is facing hard times, and some problems can be solved through negotiations and cooperation with China.
However, the United States needs to solve many more problems on its own, and the biggest problem is the low savings rate amid the large current account deficit. While the United States runs a large trade deficit with China, it also runs deficits with 87 other countries. The United States cannot blame China just because it lacks savings.
