Ukraine: Act III - the seminal fight
- By Zhao Jinglun
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 3, 2014
This new government, which includes a fair few who are tainted by corruption, has not been received with enthusiasm by the public. It now faces political instability, economic ruin and territorial disintegration. How long it can survive is anybody's guess.
Now the focus of the fight is on Crimea. Russian troops are already in the strategic peninsula. That surprised some observers. But as I said before, President Putin cannot afford to lose Crimea to the West. He called the disintegration of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century." He aspires to regain glory -- great power status -- for mother Russia.
At first, Putin tried to pull Ukraine away from the EU and into a Russian-led customs union. That failed, so he sought and immediately got Russian Parliament's approval to use its military to protect Russia's interests across Ukraine. After all, in the 9th century Kiev was the capital of the first East Slavic state, Kievan Rus, the forerunner of modern Russia.
As tension rises, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchinov, ordered the country's armed forces to be at full readiness. In the meantime, pro-Russian rallies raged in the eastern cities of Khharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and the southern port of Odessa, refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the new government.
The White House said that U.S. President Obama spoke to Putin on the phone for 90 minutes, calling on Russia "to de-escalate tensions" by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and refraining from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine." Putin emphasized the real threats to Russian citizens who are on Ukrainian territory.
Even though haws like Charles Krauthammer, writing in The Washington Post, suggested that Obama will back his warning "with a naval flotilla in the Black Sea," the general consensus is that Western governments have few options to counter Russia's military moves.
So far, Russia has not sent its forces into the predominantly ethnic Russian region of eastern Ukraine. It might not do so, unless Kiev does something reckless, like persecuting ethnic Russians or attacking the Orthodox Church.
The situation is dangerous. But the good news is that no shots have been fired yet.
Hopefully a diplomatic compromise might de-escalate tensions.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/zhaojinglun.htm
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