Sizing up the 2014 Brazilian election
- By Jiang Shixue
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 5, 2014
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Brazilian President and presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff takes part in a campaign event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Aug. 9, 2014. Brazil's general elections will be held on Oct. 5. [Xinhua/Renato Silvestre/AGENCIAESTADO] |
General elections will be held in Brazil on October 5, 2014, to elect the President, the National Congress, state governors and state legislatures. If the political tradition in Latin America is anything to go by, the most interesting contest to watch will be the presidential election.
Incumbent President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party (PT), Brazil's first female president, is running for re-election. She is now challenged by more than ten candidates, only two of whom - Minas Gerais Senator Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and Marina Silva of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) - pose a real threat.
It is sad to note that, in mid-August, a tragedy happened to one of the candidates, Eduardo Campos of the PSB. He and several of his campaign team members were killed in a plane crash. At that time, he was in third place in the polls. One week later, he was replaced on the ticket by his running mate, Marina Silva, a popular politician who previously served as Environment Minister and was a candidate for Brazil's Green Party in the last presidential election in 2010, in which she came in third.
Incumbency is believed to be a big advantage in Latin America: only two sitting presidents have lost re-election bids in the region since 1985 ("The political tide turns", Economist, May 24, 2014). Rousseff seems to have several additional advantages. First, both employment and real wages have been on the rise in Brazil in recent years, albeit this rise has not been as rapid as Rousseff expected. Second, several anti-poverty measures, including the famous Bolsa Família (a cash-transfer program for low-income families), have continued to reap good results. And finally, Rousseff has garnered the endorsement of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, her charismatic predecessor.
But Rousseff also faces some tough challenges, of which economic issues are the most important. Brazil's GDP growth rate fell from 7.5 percent in 2010 to less than 2 percent in 2014, even lower than in the two previous years.
Inflation is another headache. In the first half of July, it broke the upper boundary of the government's target range, reaching an annual rate of 6.51 percent. The daily lives of consumers have already been affected by this problem. For instance, because the price of tomatoes has been rising very rapidly, some restaurants have even dropped tomato-based dishes from their menus, even though tomatoes are considered near-obligatory in almost every Brazilian dish.
Largely because of these problems, members of Brazil's middle class, who have monthly family incomes between 2488 real and 6200 real (R$), are not happy with Rousseff. In 2013, widespread demonstrations took place in many parts of the country. On the surface, the unrest was triggered by a small rise in bus fares. However, the root of dissatisfaction was the middle class's disappointment with the government's handling of many issues. For instance, while the government has paid greater attention to poverty reduction for the poor, the middle class feels neglected.
Many voters are also angry with the corruption committed by quite a few senior government officials, though Rousseff has expressed her determination to fight against this blight on Brazilian society. Several ministers resigned or were kicked out of office by Rousseff for corrupt practices.
