US 2016 election is a global risk
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 15, 2016
In Clinton's policies toward Europe, strategic aspects overshadow economic exigencies. In Trump's approach, the reverse prevails. Clinton supports the new "Cold War" against Russia, which has contributed critically to Europe's economic stagnation. In contrast, Trump believes he can 'handle' President Putin.
Indeed, bilateral friction is most evident in his NATO criticism. But when he recently talked about NATO being "obsolete," he was simply posed questions that many American leaders ask behind the fa?ade. As Trump added, "Either they pay up, including for past deficiencies, or they have to get out. And if it breaks up NATO, it breaks up NATO."
As far as Trump is concerned, NATO members have failed to meet the 2% spending target of their GDP on defense. Only five of the 28 members - the US, the UK, Greece, Estonia and Poland - meet the standard.
Trump: America's defense has a (new) price
In domestic economic policy, Trump's track-record strongly suggests that he would support the kind of Republican policies that are cherished by the "Reagan democrats": i.e., fiscally conservative economic policies but moderate social reforms. Hence, his strong support among lower white middle- and working class.
In foreign trade, Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would be an embarrassment to Japan and the ASEAN nations that joined the deal after years of talks. To reduce the US trade deficit with the region, he would raise trade rhetoric against China, Japan and ASEAN's emerging low-cost producers. That would include a 45% tariff on Chinese exports and raising import duties on Japanese cars. In currency policy, he would confront Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan, which he claims are driving the yen down against the dollar. He would also challenge China's foreign exchange reforms that currently translate to depreciation. In each case, the net effect would be aggravated currency friction.
In foreign policy, Trump is seen as Bush's ultra-zero-lite counterpart who needs (but can afford) a regime of handlers. The bad news is that he has already angered most US minorities, two former Mexican presidents, the British Parliament, the world's Muslims, Israelis and the Palestinians, even the Pope. What's worse, his recent list of foreign policy advisors suggests that either he plans to move US foreign policy further to the Reaganesque right, or that he will undermine his own agenda in due time.
The best known of his advisors is Walid Phares, a veteran neoconservative whose political career began in the 1980s with close ties with Lebanon's militant Phalange movement that was in part funded by Israel. With Phares, Trump has called for a ground invasion of Syria and Iraq. Like Clinton, Republican senator Jeff Sessions has supported NATO expansion in Eastern Europe and the catastrophic Bush policies in the Middle East. Keith Kellogg, a former Army lieutenant general, has close ties with Pentagon's military contractors and served in CACI International when it participated in Abu Ghraib's torture programs. Joe Schmitz was in Defense Department during the Bush era but avoided scrutiny by taking an executive position with the infamous Blackwater USA. Finally, Carter Page and George Papadopoulos have deep ties with the investment banking and the new energy-industrial complex.
