Charles Dickens wrote in the opening of his famous novel:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…”  A Tale of Two Cities (1859) 

In many respects, the first year of the Trump administration also can be described in these terms.

The best of times

Economy. The stock market is at an all-time high, having set one trading record after another throughout 2017. After a sluggish recovery during the Obama years, the U.S. economy is now moving along at 3.5 percent annual growth rate and looks like it could hit 4 percent sometime in 2018.

Tax reform. A major tax reform package has been passed, providing a higher pay packet to almost 90 percent of Americans. Corporate taxes have been reduced substantially, thus making the United States more competitive with other major economies. This has already resulted in companies like Apple repatriating US$350 billion, paying billions in taxes and creating another 20,000 jobs over the next few years.

Employment. Unemployment benefit claims and jobless rates are down to the lowest level in decades. Jobs are correspondingly up, with major economic gains especially for women and minority groups.

Energy. Trump has reduced regulatory red-tape, opened new areas to exploration and development, approved the Canadian pipeline and unleashed the U.S. energy industry, which is booming.

Regulation. Trump has removed the previous administration’s heavy, top-down regulatory boot from the throat of industry. Regulations have been substantially reduced and regulatory agencies are more responsive to industry stakeholders. 

Foreign policy. Trump’s greatest foreign policy success has been the fight against ISIS, whose territorial gains have mostly been lost and whose numbers have been substantially reduced. He has committed to rebuilding U.S. defence forces, but this has yet to be achieved.  President Trump has also forged close personal friendships with a number of world leaders, including China’s President Xi Jinping, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Immigration.  Under President Trump, the number of illegal immigrants crossing U.S. borders has declined, though his “wall”  has yet to be approved. President Trump has pushed for a long overdue reform of immigration. Seeking to emulate countries such as Australia and Canada, he is advocating a merit-based system in which the United States seeks to attract highly skilled immigrants who meet U.S. employment market needs. He wants to end the lottery system that grants a green card to countries who are under-represented in the U.S. population.  He also wants to restrict “chain-migration,” which allows accepted immigrants to bring in relatives.

Judiciary. President Trump is having a profound impact on the third branch of government – the judiciary system. He has appointed a record number of judges to the Court of Appeals, which makes the final judgment on many matters. He has also successfully appointed Judge Neil M. Gorsuch, a very conservative and able member of the Supreme Court.

Mastery of social media. Trump has used social media in unprecedented ways. He used Facebook to effectively unite his base and defeat a very experienced Hilary Clinton even though she outspent him 2:1. He has been the “Twitter-in-chief” and has used tweets to communicate directly to the public, by-passing negative main-stream media. At times, however, his quips have resulted in a storm of backlash, detracting from his policy reform message and his notable accomplishments.

The worst of times

Campaign complications. The past lingers on as the ongoing investigation looks for evidence of possible Russian collusion with Trump’s campaign. After almost a year of investigation, however, there is so far no evidence tying this directly to President Trump. 

Foreign policy.  Despite some successes, substantial foreign policy problems remain, the most notable being North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapon capacity. Other challenges include increased military sales to Taiwan, continuing issues in the Middle East, especially with Iran, and the lingering war in Afghanistan, just to mention a few. Administratively, too, the U.S. State Department has not fared well under Trump; many positions have not been filled and American presence in the world is not as strong as it once was.

Negative press. President Carter concluded that we have seldom seen the press so negative against a president. Several studies have confirmed this negative bias, finding that 90 percent or more of the media coverage of President Trump has been negative. In turn, the President has been at war with the left-dominated media, lashing out at what he regards as “fake news.” Though I remain doubtful, I hope that the U.S. media in future may focus less on personality and more on policy.

Style. President Trump is not a career politician. As a blunt speaking business person, his language is viewed by many as crude and unbecoming of the office of the Presidency. The best presidents have been excellent communicators who are able to unite the country, reaffirm its values and uplift it to make things better.  

Polarization and unpopularity.  While his base has remained loyal, President Trump’s popularity has remained well below 50 percent, lower than prior presidents in their first term of office. Trump’s strong language also tends to alienate many of those undecided voters in the middle – the silent majority of Americans. Spurred in part by the “Me Too” movement against sexual assault, Trump’s popularity is especially low among women.

Climate change. One of Trump’s earliest decisions was to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.  While he indicates the United States may re-join at a later time, it is greatly concerning that the country is so out-of-step with the rest of the world on this issue.

Anti-globalism.  Consistent with his policies, the United States under Trump is more inward looking and isolationist. “Putting America first” and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership were major blows to international trade, and a lost opportunity for the world economy to grow, gaining the benefits of global cooperation for the improvement of all.  

Looking forward

President Trump can be credited with many successes in his first year and appears to be focused on doing what he promised during his campaign. If the economy remains strong, his chances of further success will be enhanced. Furthermore, the President’s personal health and energy appear to be strong – qualities which will be important if he is to be successful in the years ahead.  

On the other hand, President Trump has a way to go before he converts effective campaigning into good governing. Politically, year two of the Trump administration portends to be similarly tumultuous. His opposition is highly motivated as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress. If the economy stalls or if the Russia investigation finds evidence of collusion, and his general popularity remains low, then the President’s power to push his populist agenda will be significantly curtailed.

Without a doubt, President Trump attracts strong views in both directions and his presidency is full of contradicting forces. As the Dickens passage quoted above continues:

“[W]e had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…”  A Tale of Two Cities (1859)

Eugene Clark is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:http://www.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/eugeneclark.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

Related

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)