Japan's upper house election no longer one horse race
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With less than two weeks of campaigning left until the Japanese upper house election on July 11th, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look set to go right down to the wire, with a number of minor parties also ramping up their street campaigns from Monday hoping to cause an upset.
Political Analysis had thought the DPJ-bloc would be a shoo-in to win a majority in the upper house, as public support for Prime Minister Naoto Kan's Cabinet had been hovering around a very respectable 60 percent, however according to prominent national dailies on Monday support for the new prime minister's cabinet is beginning to wane at this very crucial moment.
The latest Yomiuri Shimbun poll revealed Monday that public support had declined to 50 percent, dropping from the 55 percent shown in the survey the newspaper took a week earlier and the Asahi Shimbun said the Cabinet support rate slipped to 48 percent from 50 percent.
Somewhat predictably, both reports cited the DPJ's possible consumption tax hike, as a measure to combat the nation's monumental debt -- the biggest in the industrialized world -- as not sitting well with the Japanese public.
If the DPJ do manage to keep control of the House of Councilors, they will likely have a three year spell of control with which to shape policy before they face another public ballot.
The DPJ's manifesto sets out clear goals for sustainable growth, sustainable government finances and calls for a bipartisan debate on tax reform, the latter being a key policy that could make or break the future of the ruling DPJ.
Kan himself suggested that a hike in consumption tax to 10 percent is something which is likely to happen in the next two to three years. The idea also appears in the opposition LDP's election manifesto and Kan drew the ire of supporters and opponents alike for suggesting that it was the LDP's figure he was using as a reference point. Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP's Policy Research Council chairman went even further, calling the DPJ manifesto "a copycat monster."
For some though, increasing consumption tax, which might prevent government deficits from ballooning further, will place unacceptable restrictions on the livelihoods of average Japanese citizens.
Shizuka Kamei, head of the pro-spending People's New Party (PNP) , the last remaining faction of the DPJ's shattered coalition, opposed such measures and accused Kan of being out of touch with the general public due to his not fully understanding the hardships people are facing now.
"Up until the manifestos were revealed, political circles believed the DPJ would win a majority in the upper house in July, possibly without the help of the PNP, but it seems to me there's been a shift in public perception, triggered by the almost certain raising of tax," Dr. David Mclellan, a professor of Asian Studies at Waseda University, told Xinhua.
"Essentially the government's debt will be passed onto the public and many feel that Mr. Kan has not explained himself fully regarding this -- this is a major error as the public have not yet recovered from the historic letdown caused by Kan's predecessor Yukio Hatoyama."
"The DPJ have to realize, whether they secure the upper house or not -- although the likelihood is they will but perhaps not as easily as first thought -- they are dealing with a very disgruntled public and perhaps more seriously an increasingly apathetic public -- a mistrusting public who now doubt any leadership is good for their word and can effect positive fiscal reform that will benefit them," said the 20-year resident of Japan, adding that the DPJ literally need to spell out their domestic and foreign policy plans.
