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After martial law chaos, what's next for Yoon Suk-yeol?

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, December 5, 2024
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Six hours after stunning the country by declaring emergency martial law, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol reversed his decisions and faced calls to step down.

Analysts said Yoon's actions have violated the constitution, throwing the country's political landscape into chaos and uncertainty.

SIGNS OF POLITICAL UPHEAVAL

Yoon declared martial law in a televised emergency address on Tuesday night, vowing to eradicate "anti-state forces" and uphold free constitutional order.

It marked the first martial law declaration since the country's military dictatorship ended in the late 1980s.

Yoon criticized the parliament for paralyzing state affairs by attempting to impeach government officials, launch a special prosecutor's team for investigation into scandals involving the first lady and protect the opposition leader from legal risks.

South Korea has been in a bitter political stalemate for months, with the country's liberal opposition parties winning a parliamentary majority in April. The ruling and opposition parties had been locked in a deadlock over next year's budget, which analysts said was a catalyst for Yoon's sudden move.

YOON'S POLITICAL GAMBLE

Analysts point out that Yoon's martial law declaration was not supported either by his own party or the United States.

Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon's conservative People Power Party, called the decision to impose martial law "wrong" and vowed to "stop it with the people."

On Wednesday, the party leadership convened to discuss potential measures, including asking Yoon to leave the party and the resignation of the entire cabinet.

In the meantime, U.S. State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel told media that the U.S. side was not notified in advance of Yoon's announcement. The White House expressed relief that Yoon had rescinded his martial law declaration.

Analysts said Yoon's lack of prior communication with the United States raises questions about the level of support he can expect from the U.S. side.

Yoon has long been criticized for his "lack of communication" governance style. "The president not only refuses to meet with the opposition leader but also avoids the ruling party leader. He even did not attend the National Assembly opening ceremony for fear of criticism," said Lee Geon-tae, a lawmaker of the main opposition Democratic Party.

In the face of increasing tensions between the ruling and opposition parties, Yoon's political gamble without internal or external support has led to a predictable failure, analysts said.

IMPEACHMENT

South Korea's constitution stipulates that martial law can only be declared in cases of war, unrest, or other comparable national emergency states requiring military intervention to maintain social order. Constitutional experts said Yoon's move did not meet these criteria and was unconstitutional.

Noh Hee Beom, a lawyer who worked as a research judge at the Constitutional Research Institute, said Yoon's imposition of martial law violates Article 77 of the South Korean Constitution and the Martial Law Act. He believed that Yoon's attempt to break a political deadlock had exceeded his authority under the constitution and was a grave violation of the constitution that could result in his impeachment.

On Thursday, six opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, reported an impeachment motion against Yoon to the 300-member National Assembly, with a vote scheduled for Saturday.

Under the constitution, the impeachment motion must be approved by at least two-thirds of the National Assembly legislators, equating to 200 votes in favor.

Local media estimates indicate that 192 votes from opposition and independent lawmakers are already secured, requiring just eight additional votes from the ruling party for the motion to pass. If successful, Yoon would face a trial by the Constitutional Court, potentially following the path of former President Park Geun-hye.

The martial law crisis has sparked widespread public outrage in South Korea, with civic and labor groups holding protest rallies to demand Yoon's resignation.

Local media reports suggest that Yoon's failed political gamble has left him in a precarious position, and significant changes to his political career may be imminent. 

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