First impressions of the 12th NPC
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 9, 2013
The Chinese calendar follows a memorable pattern at this time of year: Spring Festival, Yuanxiao Festival, and then the National People's Congress (NPC) session. This comes round every year at the beginning of March, just as the fierce winds from the Inner Mongolian desert blow predictably through the streets of Beijing. But this year a major change has been visible; a change in the style of the presentation of the great event. It seems much more in tune with the businesslike lifestyle of the hard-working people of Beijing.
In years gone by, half the roads in Beijing were closed to ordinary traffic at NPC time, so that there was no chance that the long convoys of black Hongqi limousines might have to change down to second gear at a junction. The idea, at least partly, was to keep the populace in awe of the leadership. It is clear from the TV coverage that times are now changing, and that the NPC (and CPPCC) delegates appear to be doing their best to minimise disruption to the ordinary working life of Beijing. Yes, their work is very important; but, to the Chinese economy, so is everyone else's.
It was interesting that Zhou Mingwei, a CPPCC National Committee member and president of China International Publishing Group (CIPG), laid such an emphasis on the impression that China is giving to the outside world. Of course the effect of government policies on foreigners is nowhere near as important as their effect on the Chinese people themselves, but in fact there is no conflict of interest here. China has done a good job in dismantling most of the worst anti-Chinese prejudices in the outside world over the last few years, and it is largely true now that what the West wishes for China is the same as what China wishes for itself.
Undoubtedly the outside world is watching this NPC session closely. We all know that the stability and prosperity of China is going to underpin the stability and prosperity of the world in the immediate future, and that no one in the world has an interest in a Chinese failure. However, we know that some people in China are still somewhat suspicious of Western attitudes, thinking that we are all waiting for the Chinese government to trip over its feet and make a mess of things. This is not the case, nor are we waiting for a sudden decision by China to adopt Western practices and policies.
No one supposes that China's political system needs to develop in one precisely-defined way, or to conform exactly to other models. A political system is a means to an end, not an end in itself, and that end is a properly balanced interaction between government and people. A people can be governed either by force or by consent. The former path has been tried times beyond count, and has invariably led to oppression, tyranny, war, poverty and ultimate collapse.
The latter used to be called "The Mandate of Heaven." Now it is better known as "the consent of the people." It is the only possible way towards the long-term stability and prosperity which the Chinese (and most other peoples) yearn for (though there are still some countries in the world in which leader-worship and the baying of nationalist and xenophobic slogans are seen to be enough). For the last 30 years the consent of the Chinese people has been grounded in growing prosperity; but everybody knows that these levels of economic growth cannot be sustained forever. And, even now, China is finding that it is getting more difficult to obtain consent when its officials are corrupt or suspected of corruption.
A broader and more focused framework for popular consent to the national political framework will be needed, and it is encouraging to see precisely this issue being addressed at the 12th NPC. The fine detail of economic planning is yet to come, and observers within and without China will be looking for signs that a fully realistic assessment of China's economic prospects is being publicly aired. A 7.5 percent economic growth target is not unrealistic, and is in line with China's recent economic performance; but there will come a time when the forecast, never mind the outturn, will be far lower, and the Chinese leadership will still have to persuade the Chinese people to buy into its policies...
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm
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