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自1955年以來(lái)，日本自民黨從來(lái)沒有遭遇今年這樣的困局。這個(gè)困境由國(guó)際金融危機(jī)、奧巴馬和自民黨自身共同營(yíng)造，并使自民黨半個(gè)多世紀(jì)來(lái)第一次成為日本政壇的弱勢(shì)群體。 |
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has not faced such a political crisis since 1955. The global financial crisis, the election of President Obama, and the party's own internal problems have combined to reduce the LDP to its weakest position for five decades. |
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金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，使只能依賴出口導(dǎo)向的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受重創(chuàng)，并迅速轉(zhuǎn)化為日本公眾中問(wèn)責(zé)意識(shí)的蔓延，在競(jìng)選初始，自民黨就背負(fù)原罪的包袱而處于下風(fēng)。與此同時(shí)，在日本的政治母國(guó)美國(guó)，奧巴馬以“改變”為口號(hào)，成功晉級(jí)白宮，這使得“改變”也成為日選民的主流心態(tài)，自民黨長(zhǎng)達(dá)54年的獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷后，日本選民“改變”的心態(tài)或許比美國(guó)選民更迫切。 |
The financial crisis hit Japan's export-oriented economy hard and intensified people's dissatisfaction with the LDP. From the outset of the election campaign the party found itself at a disadvantage. Political developments in Japan followed the recent US pattern. Obama's victory on the presidential race under the slogan of "change", made a deep impression on Japanese voters. After 54 years of LDP rule, Japanese voters were even more ready for change than their American counterparts. |
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今年以來(lái)，派系政治和門閥政治屢遭炮擊從一個(gè)側(cè)面證明了日本選民的急迫。而在自民黨內(nèi)部，對(duì)于麻生內(nèi)閣不信任感的累積最終導(dǎo)致內(nèi)部爭(zhēng)斗的公開化，但是，人們找不到力挽狂瀾的合適人選，自民黨進(jìn)入了內(nèi)部戰(zhàn)國(guó)時(shí)期。一切跡象都表明，今年的日本大選是一場(chǎng)結(jié)局早已注定的政治秀。問(wèn)題是，被選民寄予希望的民主黨上臺(tái)之后，日本及其周邊的政治劇情將怎么向下演？ |
Voters became thoroughly exasperated with factional politics just as the distrust of Prime Minister Taro Aso, and the failure to find a suitable successor, plunged the LDP into internal feuding. The result of the election therefore became a foregone conclusion. The question is – what will happen to Japan's relations with its neighbors under the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government? |
| 我們必須看到，與其說(shuō)民主黨是因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)具備了成熟的執(zhí)政條件上臺(tái)的，不如說(shuō)是因?yàn)槿毡具x民對(duì)自民黨執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟失望而被推動(dòng)上臺(tái)的。如果說(shuō)自民黨面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)困局不是意外，是其源有自的結(jié)果，那么民主黨的上臺(tái)則多少是個(gè)意外。 |
The first thing to recognize is that it is voters' disappointment with the LDP rather than the DPJ's maturity that swept the new government into power. While the LDP's political difficulties are not accidental, the DPJ's capture of power was, to some extent, a matter of luck. |
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在隱約而見的兩黨制度架構(gòu)下，日本選民面臨的是兩選一的選項(xiàng)，不是A，就是B。事實(shí)上，從民主黨強(qiáng)勢(shì)代表人物小澤一郎的政治挫折就可看出，民主黨自身并沒有做好上臺(tái)的充分準(zhǔn)備。因此，即將搖身變?yōu)閳?zhí)政聯(lián)盟主體的民主黨，將在短暫的歡呼后很快面臨以下挑戰(zhàn)：一是沒有足夠的專業(yè)執(zhí)政團(tuán)隊(duì)，二是沒有成型長(zhǎng)期的執(zhí)政綱領(lǐng)，第三，或許最重要的是，對(duì)于在低迷中掙扎的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)和不可阻止的老齡化勢(shì)頭，民主黨也無(wú)能為力。民主黨很快就會(huì)面對(duì)民眾的不耐煩心理。（中國(guó)網(wǎng)） |
Under the country's two-party system, Japanese voters had only two choices. The problems faced by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa showed that the DPJ is not ready to rule the nation. After a honeymoon period, the DPJ will have to face up to the fact that it lacks both a professional administration team and a long-term political strategy. More importantly the DPJ has no remedies for Japan's sluggish economy or its aging society. The Japanese people will soon tire of the DPJ.
(China.org.cn translated by Zhang Ming'ai)? |
