BRICS group not about to replace G8
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China.org.cn: BRIC has now become BRICS. What impact will South Africa's participation have?
Yao: It will make the BRIC more representative. South Africa is the only African member of the G20. So it represents Africa to some degree. Its participation in BRICS will expand the group's voting power in the IMF to 11.28 percent from the current 10.48 percent. But this is still under the 15 percent threshold that would allow the group to exercise a veto. So if the emerging economies want to have more say in global economics and politics, the organization needs to be further expanded. If all the 11 emerging economies in the G20 were members, the BRICS voting power would be over 18 percent. But that is easier said than done. From South Africa's point of view, it wants to use the BRIC mechanism to enhance its global influence as an emerging economy. And South Africa, Brazil and India all want to become the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Obviously, BRICS countries will continue to talk about this issue in future, though China's main motive for membership is economic development. But discussing political issues is good for all members as it contributes to the process of improving international rules.
China.org.cn: Some commentators are speculating that the BRICS is set to replace the G8. What's your view?
Yao: I don't think this will happen. The developed countries are in a dominant position. But the emerging economies can change the rules laid down by developed countries through negotiation and through coordinating their approach. Some of the major economies negotiate among themselves first before talking with the developing countries as a team. It is easier to achieve your goals through teamwork rather than talking separately. But we need to approach negotiations with developed countries skillfully and tactically or it will provoke a reaction and attempts at containment.
China.org.cn: How do the economies of the BRICS countries complement each other?
Yao: The BRICS nations complement each other in terms of their economies and trading patterns. Brazil has iron ore, and Russia is rich in energy resources such as oil and natural gas. India's service industry is very developed, especially its software industry. And China's strength, as is well known, is in manufacturing. Inter-dependency among members is growing as their economies develop. But complementarity does not necessarily mean everything is plain sailing. It can produce conflict, like the dispute between China and Brazil over iron ore negotiations. So complementarity does not necessarily equate to mutual benefit. But it does have the potential to promote mutual development, especially in the wake of the global financial crisis.
China.org.cn: Now that BRIC has become BRICS, will it expand further? What are its long term prospects?
Yao: The BRICS countries are already discussing enlargement. Enlargement will increase the group's representativeness and amplify the voice of emerging economies on the world stage. But the existing members have different views on applicants, depending on their own standings and interests. Moreover, having a bigger membership means it will become more difficult to coordinate and act as a team in negotiations. So, enlargement is a double-edged sword. As for the longer-term development of BRICS, some see it as a transitional mechanism that will eventually disappear. But I don't see it that way. If we posit the G20 as the leader of the future world order, there are two divisions within this league – the developed nations represented by the G7, and the emerging economies represented by BRICS. BRICS is the leader of the emerging economies and will probably expand further to encompass six, seven or even eleven countries. Developing countries need a framework like BRICS to make their voices heard and to coordinate their approach. So I see BRICS lasting for quite a long time.
(This article was written in Chinese and translated by Li Shen.)
