World Cup catches fire at last
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Comment: Rob Houwing, Sport24 chief writer
Cape Town – Several thoroughly engrossing matches in succession, including all three on Monday, have helped toss off the blanket of mediocrity as the 2010 World Cup moves into the final round of matches across the eight groups from Tuesday.
And there is something at stake in just about every remaining group encounter, even if some teams really only have a fairytale, mathematical hope of progressing to the round of 16.
The new phase will begin on Saturday, immediately after the group combat is wrapped up the night before.
Four teams boast 100% records after their two group matches thus far: Argentina in Group B, Holland in Group E, Brazil in Group G and Chile in Group H.
Yet only two of them – Holland and Brazil – are absolutely assured of participation in the knockout phase.
And even those teams probably still retain interest in respective last group matches because topping theirs is not wholly guaranteed yet, if they indeed care about that factor.
Brazil, especially, have work to do before they can boast completed group supremacy: their last match is against the presently rampant Portugal in Durban on Friday, and if they lose they will be bounced into second place.
The Portuguese come off a majestic 7-0 crushing of North Korea at Green Point Stadium, including a six-goal avalanche in the second half.
Meanwhile the Brazilians, still most bookies’ slight favourites for the trophy, whipped the highly-touted Ivory Coast 3-1 on Sunday to fire off their own warning to any challengers.
The meeting at Moses Mabhida Stadium has long been billed as “the” match-up of the group phase, especially as it is a traditional grudge one between Brazil and their colonial masters from the 16th to 19th centuries.
But with both teams well nigh certain to progress, whatever happens in it, I am not convinced it deserves quite so much hype.
My own pick of the remaining group fixtures is the Loftus one, a little later the same day, pitting European champions Spain against the invigorating Chilean side.
There is more at stake, with a variety of intriguing permutations. Chile, despite their successive victories over Honduras and Switzerland and refreshing - if sometimes a bit helter-skelter - commitment to enterprise, only prevailed 1-0 in each instance so they do not boast a truly comforting goal difference if that becomes an issue.
Always in their minds will be that their toughest game comes last, especially as their opponents could yet not qualify if they fail to win and Switzerland knock over Honduras.
Similarly, if Chile lose and the Swiss beat the Hondurans by a couple of goals, the log-leaders could plummet spectacularly to third, and elimination.
So the scene is set for a nail-biting contest. Spain, coming off a shock opening-game reverse to gritty but unexciting Switzerland, played with wonderful speed and showed top-notch build-up skills in Johannesburg on Monday night, and should have scored a hatful against Honduras instead of just registering a 2-0 score-line.
If their date with Chile and the Brazil-Portugal fixture are the sexy ones in the last round of group games, there are also several scraps that fall into a more “desperate” category.
This applies especially to Groups C, D and F where the top team is separated from the bottom one by only three points and various permutations are possible. (The same applies on paper to Group A, but Uruguay and Mexico are very heavily tipped to elbow out France and South Africa.)
Defending champions Italy, amazingly, are level on two points with minnows New Zealand in claustrophobic Group F - Paraguay head the table - and must beat Slovakia to ensure their onward passage.
The same points permutations affect Group C, where third-placed England, the 1966 champions, almost certainly have to beat Slovenia in Port Elizabeth to stave off arguably the worst World Cup fiasco in their history: elimination from a group considered extremely kind to them when the draw was made.
In Group D, Africa’s desperately fading challenge is being held up valiantly by Ghana, but their position at the helm and even qualification is threatened by playing Germany in the last match.
Sadly I suspect the Germans will win at Soccer City on Wednesday, and Serbia (who play Australia at the same time) will also bump out Ghana and qualify in second.
Whatever happens ahead of the round of 16, the tournament is certainly waking up, with tempos and attacking intent broadly on the pick-up …
My likeliest qualifier tips from each group:
Group A: 1 Uruguay 2 Mexico
Group B: 1 Argentina 2 South Korea
Group C: 1 England 2 Slovenia
Group D: 1 Germany 2 Serbia
Group E: 1 Netherlands 2 Denmark
Group F: 1 Paraguay 2 Italy
Group G: 1 Brazil 2 Portugal
Group H: 1 Spain 2 Chile
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